Cars from the Future Part II: Fueling Alternative Vehicles

In the first part of our series looking at the car of the future, we examined the trends pushing automotive development. The major factors of the future car appear that it must be cost effective, efficient and technologically advanced but not flashy. In this part, we will look at what specific needs that cars of the future need to meet. 

The way that we fuel our cars is changing. Thirty years ago there were two options: gasoline or diesel. Today that number has exploded to include things like electricity to compressed natural gas, but what do drivers want from these vehicles? One of the major factors in selecting a car with a new type of fuel is its range.

The study that we examined from the Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung GfK found that the largest percentage of drivers, 33.6%, want a car with a minimum of 500km of range. Of the respondents, 29.2% said that less than that would be acceptable and 33.8% wanted more than that. There were 3.5% of people who rejected alternative fuel vehicles of any type. 

This shows that consumers are unwilling to give up practicality when it comes to buying an alternative fuel vehicle. Right now only vehicles with CNG or hybrids are able to offer this kind of range. The only electric vehicle close to this range is the top-spec Tesla Model STesla Model SUnited States of America, 2012 > present10 photos
, which has a range of 485km, and it starts at $84,900 in the US. 

Living in a larger city does not change the desire for range. People in cities with other 100,000 people were 30.8% likely to find an alternative fuel vehicle with a 250km range acceptable. That dropped less than one percent (29.6%) for people in cities with between 20,000 people and 100,000 people. Even people in small villages were 26.7% likely to want a car with a 250km range. 

One of the main factors concerning the safety of electric vehicles in the future is that they do not make as much noise as a conventional engine. That does not seem to bother people though. Only 33.2% said that the electric car's noise was a safety issue. Most, 51.5%, saw it as a positive and 8.3% do not even care. 

There is a definite cost associated with new fuels. There is an insufficient infrastructure for electric and fuel cell vehicles, and both require expensive special equipment for fueling. How should it be paid for? The survey found that 35.9 % of people believe that all taxpayers should be responsible for covering the cost. The rest of the respondents were roughly split: 20.8% said that those driving alternative fuel vehicles should pay; 19.6% said that those not driving alternative fuel vehicles should pay; 15.8% said that energy suppliers should pay. Finally, 7.9% believe that we should not be using alternative fuels like hydrogen and electricity. 

The study found that Italians (45%) and Austrians (41%) were most in favor of taxing everyone for alternative infrastructure while the French (27%) and Belgians (29%) were least interested. 

What Does This Mean for Buyers?

From these data we can see that range is a major factor in the future of alternative fuel vehicles, and it appears that hybrids will be the most popular alternative fuel vehicles in the near future. This is because they are the only ones that can provide the range that people want from a vehicle. 

Hybrids are improving quickly as well. The latest hybrid concepts are offering longer ranges and better efficiency in the same volume of area. 

Pure electric vehicles have major hurdles to becoming acceptable to most drivers. ToyotaToyotaJapan, 1937 > present155 models
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even admitted this fact this week when it decided to produce only 100 of its iQ EVsToyota iQ EVJapan, 2012 > present4 photos
. It said that the technology was not yet ready for pure electric vehicles. When a company that has backed hybrid and electric vehicles so heavily is admitting problems, you have to take notice. 

There is also a battle on the horizon about how to fuel these electric and hydrogen vehicles. Hydrogen vehicles have the hardest time ahead of them. HondaHondaJapan, 1948 > present102 models
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has sold the FCX ClarityHonda FCX ClarityJapan, 2010 > present3 photos
since 2008 and announced last Friday that it was developing an improved fuel cell vehicle. Still, there is a chicken and egg problem here. Private industry is not going to want to build a hydrogen infrastructure until hydrogen cars are widely available, and automakers will not mass produce hydrogen vehicles until there is a sufficient fueling system. 

Electric vehicles will have an easier time. Tesla debuted its Supercharger system this week that gives its cars 3 hours of drive time from 30 minutes of charge. Electrical vehicle charging can at least pull from the already widespread electric grid. The hurdle here is more technological in finding how to charge electric vehicles quickly enough to be convenient. 

Next week we will look at how people will use public transportation and car sharing services in the future. 

Cars from the Future: Part I; What People Want