Cars from the Future Part III: Public Transport and Urban Mobility

In our continuing look at cars of the future this week we look at cities and the future of public transport, car sharing and urban mobility. 

Car Sharing

Most drivers want an automotive future similar today. Our survey from Gesellschaft für Konsumforschung GfK shows that 64.2% believe that their own vehicle will fulfill the majority of their needs in the future. Of the rest of those surveyed, 23.1% believed that their own vehicle would fill most needs but could also see using car sharing service occasionally, and 7.1% think that only car sharing will be sufficient for them. The final 5.6% did not respond to the question. 

The desire to own their own car was most prevalent with younger people. Drivers between 18 and 39 were 67.5% likely to want to own a car. Even drivers from 50 to 59 were 58.5% wanting to own their own car. 

The desire to own a car was most prevalent in Spain at 70% and least likely in the Netherlands at 58%

This means that city planners should prepare for the current state of traffic remaining roughly the same and try to find solutions. Most drivers are not ready to stop using their car in favor of car sharing. The number of cars on the road will probably remain roughly the same for the near future. 

It also demonstrates that the proliferation of car sharing services in the near future is unlikely. Only about 30% of buyers see car sharing services as something that they would be willing to use. In large cities it seems possible that several services could complete against one another, but it is unlikely that medium-sized cities will have large enough populations to support competing services. Austrians were the most likely to believe that they could get by only with car sharing at 13%, and the French were least likely at 5%. 

City Center Mobility

Still, it is far easier to use a car in the country and on motorways than in crowded cities. European city dwellers have a strong desire to limit traffic in highly crowded areas. About 36% said that only public transportation should be allowed in cities and another 28.1% believe that driving in cities should only be limited to special vehicles like the low emissions vehicles in Germany and London. About 36% believe that anyone should be able to drive in cities. 

There was an odd skew in the data though. People between 18-29 wanted all vehicles to be able to drive in cities compared to 28% between 60 and 65. A possible explanation is that these are the people who have the least driving experience and have had not enough time to get fed up with traffic. 

The survey found that 31% of city dwellers preferred allowing only specific vehicles in cities rather than a complete ban. In comparison People who live in the country are 26% likely to think that only specific vehicles should be allowed to be in the city center.

Keeping vehicles out of cities will not necessarily be cheap. To support workers and shoppers, cities will have to invest heavily in public transport and park-and-ride locations. Ideally, the park-and-ride locations would offer plenty of safe parking and frequent stops by public transport. That will require a lot of land and construction from cities at a time when Europe's cities are struggling to pay their bills. 

Conclusion

These data actually allow us to draw relatively clear conclusions. Drivers in the near future still to own a personal car but are okay with not being able to drive it into the most congested parts of the city unless the vehicle produces low emissions or the city has sufficient public transport.